$7.5B IN WHALE INFLOWS HIT BINANCE—COULD THIS SHIFT BITCOIN’S MARKET TREND?

New data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin is seeing a sharp rise in large-scale inflows to Binance, totaling $7.5 billion over the past 30 days—the highest level recorded this year. Analysts warn that this trend closely mirrors conditions seen in March 2025, just before Bitcoin fell sharply from $102,000 to the low $70,000 range.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn noted that spikes in whale inflows often signal growing caution among major holders.

According to him, “Whales usually transfer funds to exchanges when they plan to take profit or reduce risk as the market starts to weaken. Since the 30-day inflow metric is still rising, there’s no indication that selling pressure has stabilized yet.”

This trend suggests that Bitcoin may not be out of the danger zone. With strong selling flows continuing, the market remains fragile and uncertain. Analysts say it’s still too early to confirm whether Bitcoin is preparing for a recovery or if more downside—and possibly the start of a longer-term bearish phase—is ahead.

Bitcoin’s November Crash Resembles 2021 Bear Market, Not a Simple Dip, Analysts Warn

Bitcoin’s recent downturn is beginning to look less like a routine correction and more like the start of a deeper bear market, according to several leading analysts.

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators have turned bearish, with future price recovery likely depending heavily on global liquidity conditions. “Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish, and further upside likely depends on macro liquidity,” Ju said.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and commodities investor G. Martín believes the October peak near $126,000 may have marked Bitcoin’s post-halving top. In a detailed Substack analysis titled “Bitcoin is in a Bear Market,” Martín argued that the October 10 de-leveraging event, which erased nearly $19 billion from crypto markets, resembles the early stages of the 2021–2022 bear market, not the temporary pullback seen in 2023.

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According to Martín, several signs are now pointing toward a prolonged downtrend.

suggests traders are positioning for lower prices,” he wrote.

Martín added that Bitcoin’s sharp drop from $126,000 to $80,000 over the past two months shows how strongly market sentiment, fear, and greed influence price movements. As an asset without cash flows, he explained, Bitcoin’s value is largely driven by liquidity and the narratives that fuel each cycle.

He also emphasized that 95% of retail buyers entered the market near $115,000, mostly during the enthusiasm surrounding the “Crypto President Trump” narrative—often without realizing that Bitcoin had already surged more than 700% in three years.

“When Bitcoin hovered around $100,000, the sentiment didn’t feel like genuine bullish conviction,” Martín wrote. “It felt more like denial—people were nervous because their entry price was already underwater.”

As part of his outlook, Martín highlighted Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s mNAV metric as a key indicator to monitor. According to him, its current behavior mirrors the early warning signs seen at the start of the 2021–2022 bear market, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin may be entering a long-term downward phase.

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Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Rescue Bitcoin, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin shouldn’t expect help from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy shift, according to analyst G. Martín, who believes the market is misreading the impact of expected December rate cuts.

Many investors anticipate a “Santa rally” as quantitative tightening (QT) winds down next week. However, Martín argues the opposite may happen. He explained that if the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet by selling long-term holdings, the private sector must step in to buy them—a move that drains liquidity from financial markets rather than boosting it.

“Rate cuts will be positive for the broader economy, but not necessarily bullish for Bitcoin,” Martín said.

Bitcoin Cycle Could Break—Bottom Expected in 2026

Martín believes the current Federal Reserve policies could disrupt Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. In his outlook, Bitcoin may not form a true bottom until late 2026, when global liquidity meaningfully returns to the market.

Under this scenario, he expects Bitcoin could revisit the $73,000–$70,000 range, potentially setting a deeper low. Afterwards, a relief rally may push BTC back toward $95,000 to $105,000 in the mid-term before any sustainable uptrend begins.

Key Levels Must Be Reclaimed for a Real Bottom

According to Martín’s analysis, Bitcoin must reclaim several major resistance levels lost during November’s sharp sell-off. Only then can the market confirm a proper bottom near the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a historically critical support level for long-term Bitcoin reversals.