BITCOIN MOVES ABOVE $86K AS FRESH OPEN INTEREST DATA POINTS TO BULLISH MOMENTUM

Bitcoin was trading around $86,646 at press time, gaining 0.6% over the past 24 hours. The price moved between $85,483 and $87,995 during the day. Despite the slight recovery, Bitcoin is still down 10% over the week and remains well below its $126,080 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, following a sharp 31% correction.

Trading activity picked up noticeably, with 24-hour spot volume rising to $64.7 billion, a strong 46% increase that reflects renewed market participation after several sessions of heavy selling.

According to CoinGlass, derivatives volume jumped 35% to $93 billion, while open interest edged up 0.64%. Higher volume combined with only a mild rise in open interest suggests traders are re-entering the market after a major liquidation phase, but overall positioning remains cautious.

Open Interest Drop May Signal a Trend Reversal

A Nov. 21 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlights a significant structural shift unfolding in the Bitcoin derivatives market. According to the report, Bitcoin’s open interest—measured in BTC—has recorded its steepest 30-day decline of the entire cycle. On Binance alone, open interest has fallen by nearly 1.3 million BTC, indicating a major unwinding of leveraged positions.

Darkfost noted that a drop of this magnitude has not occurred since the 2022 bear market, suggesting that the current reset is much deeper than many traders realize. He emphasized that this cleanup phase is “far more meaningful than many traders admit,” hinting that the reduction in leverage could be laying the groundwork for a potential market reversal.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to eventually recover toward the $99,000 to $105,000 range before facing stronger resistance. However, they caution that rapid moves above $100,000 often lead to overly optimistic market sentiment and premature bullish assumptions.

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According to their outlook, Bitcoin’s price may continue to fluctuate between $78,000 and $105,000 for several months as the market works toward establishing a more definitive trend.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s chart shows a clear downward trend from late October through November, marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price remains near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling continued weakness rather than the formation of a stable base.

Currently, candles are trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are sloping downward, confirming persistent bearish pressure. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits deep in oversold territory at 29, and the Stochastic is low, neither shows a clear bullish reversal yet.

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An elevated Average Directional Index (ADX) points to a strong trend that has not weakened sufficiently to indicate a shift in direction. Meanwhile, the MACD and Awesome Oscillator remain negative, suggesting that buyers have not regained meaningful traction.

Key support is located around the mid-$80,000 range. If this level fails to hold, Bitcoin could retest lower areas near $80,000. On the upside, resistance sits near $90,000, with the psychological barrier at $100,000 acting as a significant hurdle for further gains.