Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin $250K by Year-End

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reaffirmed his $250,000 Bitcoin price target by year-end, describing the recent dip to $80,600 as the market bottom. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast, Hayes said dollar liquidity has bottomed, setting the stage for higher prices in risk assets.

Hayes explained that Bitcoin fell from $125,000 to $80,000 due to a reversal in misunderstood ETF flows and the U.S. Treasury replenishing its account. From July through November, the Treasury raised roughly $1 trillion, pulling liquidity from the markets. Combined with the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, nearly $1 trillion exited dollar money markets, impacting asset prices.

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Arthur Hayes challenged the idea that Bitcoin ETF inflows reflected genuine institutional buying. According to Bloomberg data, Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir are the top five holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

“These entities aren’t simply going long on Bitcoin,” Hayes said. Instead, they were executing basis trades—buying the IBIT ETF while shorting CME futures contracts against it.

After the funding rate collapsed on October 10, these traders unwound their positions by selling the ETF and buying back futures. “Retail sees this and thinks, ‘Oh no, institutions loved Bitcoin in the summer, and now they hate it in the fall,’” Hayes explained. “So they feel they need to exit their own positions, without understanding what was actually driving those flows in the first place.”

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The Treasury General Account (TGA) has reached around $900 billion, slightly above its $850 billion target. Equally important, the Federal Reserve has concluded its quantitative tightening program.

“The balance sheet will be kept constant,” Hayes said. “We are essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart, and the direction from here is higher.” He expects bank lending, rather than the Fed, to drive credit creation in 2026, citing JP Morgan’s discussions of $1.5 trillion in industrial-sector lending.

“Once these initiatives actually materialize, we’ll see markets price in a larger forward view on dollar liquidity,” Hayes added. Despite recent market volatility, he remains confident Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by December 31.

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FAQs

1. What price target does Arthur Hayes set for Bitcoin by the end of the year?

Arthur Hayes reaffirms a $250,000 Bitcoin price target by December 31, 2025.

2. What does Hayes think of the recent Bitcoin dip to $80,600?

He describes the $80,600 level as the market bottom, indicating that liquidity conditions have stabilized.

3. Why did Bitcoin fall from $125,000 to $80,000, according to Hayes?

The drop was due to a combination of reversed ETF flows (basis trades) and the U.S. Treasury pulling liquidity from markets, alongside the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program.

4. What does Hayes say about ETF inflows and institutional demand?

Hayes explains that ETF inflows do not reflect genuine institutional buying. Top holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF were executing basis trades—buying the ETF while shorting CME futures. Retail investors misinterpreted this activity as institutional enthusiasm.

5. How has the liquidity picture changed, and what does it mean for Bitcoin?

The Treasury General Account reached around $900 billion, and the Fed has ended quantitative tightening, stabilizing liquidity. Hayes expects future bank lending to drive credit creation, which supports higher risk-asset prices, reinforcing his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.