BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION: NETWORK ACTIVITY SLUMPS, LIQUIDITY TIGHTENS—WHAT’S NEXT FOR BTC?
Bitcoin network activity has fallen to its lowest levels since 2023, with active wallet counts declining as the Fear & Greed Index drops to 11, signaling extreme market fear. Analysts point to $81,500—the True Market Mean Price—as a key support level that could determine whether the broader bull market remains intact.
On-chain data shows that despite ongoing price movements, fewer Bitcoin holders are actively transacting, reflecting reduced participation across the network. Market indicators suggest Bitcoin may need to regain the $100,000 psychological level to avoid a deeper corrective phase and restore bullish momentum.
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Extreme Fear Grips Markets as Year-End Approaches
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 11, indicating a state of extreme fear in the market. Analysts note that new capital inflows into Bitcoin are starting to slow, a trend that often emerges as the year draws to a close, when overall participation and liquidity typically decline.
A Japanese analyst at XWIN Research explained that thinner liquidity can lead to sharper price swings, even on modest trading activity. However, lower trading noise may also make underlying supply-and-demand conditions easier to identify.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading near a price level that may carry more importance than it appears at first glance.
Bitcoin’s current price near $86,000 remains above the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), a metric that reflects the average on-chain purchase price of investors, excluding miners.
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According to analyst Moreno, holding above the TMMP level at $81,500 would indicate that the broader bullish trend remains intact.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Weekly Chart Highlights Key $81K Support Zone
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a shift from strong upward momentum to a corrective phase after multiple failed attempts to break above the $100,000 psychological resistance.
BTC has now clearly fallen below the $100,000 level and is trading under major moving averages, which are starting to turn lower and act as dynamic resistance in the $103,000 to $108,000 range.
On the downside, the most important structural support lies near $81,000, an area aligned with the average investor cost basis. With price currently hovering just above this zone, the level represents a critical turning point for the broader market.
Momentum indicators remain cautious, with the MACD firmly in bearish territory and negative histogram bars continuing to expand, suggesting downside pressure is still present despite a recent easing in selling intensity.
A sustained weekly close below $81,000 could open the door to a deeper pullback toward the $74,000 region, often viewed as the final support zone of the current bull cycle, where longer-term buyers may step in.
On the other hand, a decisive move back above $100,000 and a sustained hold above that level would be needed to neutralize bearish momentum and restore upside potential toward the $105,000–$110,000 area.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains at a critical crossroads as thinning liquidity, elevated fear, and weakening network activity continue to weigh on market sentiment. Key technical and on-chain levels—particularly the $81,000 support zone—are now central to determining whether the broader bull market structure can hold. A sustained move below this area would likely invite deeper downside, while a recovery above the $100,000 psychological level would be needed to restore bullish momentum.
At the same time, investor interest is not disappearing entirely. Select early-stage projects, such as Pepenode, are still attracting capital, suggesting that risk appetite may return quickly if Bitcoin confirms a decisive breakout. Until then, market participants are likely to remain cautious, closely watching whether Bitcoin can defend critical support and reestablish a clearer trend direction.
