CRYPTO MOMENTUM SLOWS AT $94K BITCOIN AMID BOND MARKET TURMOIL AND PRE-FED UNCERTAINTY

The crypto market opened in December on a strong footing, with Bitcoin pushing toward $94,000 and Ethereum approaching $3,250 late last week, according to a research update from Laser Digital.

The surge was driven by two major catalysts: Strategy’s acquisition of nearly $960 million in Bitcoin and growing anticipation for the Fusaka upgrade set for December 3.

But once these triggers passed, bullish momentum faded quickly. Prices reversed sharply during Friday’s U.S. session as sellers took control. Although a mild recovery appeared over the weekend, it failed to carry into Monday—reflecting what Laser Digital describes as a “recurring pattern in the crypto market over recent months.”

Global Bond Yields Surge to Multi-Decade Highs as Markets Brace for Policy Shifts

Bond yields climbed to their highest levels in decades as shifting monetary policy expectations pressured global risk assets. Japan led the downturn, with the 10-year JGB jumping past 1.90%—a level not seen in around 30 years. Laser Digital notes that the move was fuelled by rising odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan and concerns over increased bond issuance tied to a larger-than-expected FY25 supplementary budget and the upcoming FY26 budget.

In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield also pushed higher, breaking above 4.10% as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Expectations of a “hawkish cut”—a rate reduction paired with firm, restrictive guidance—further weighed on rate sentiment and dampened appetite for risk assets.

Market Sentiment Splits Between Equities and Crypto

Gracy Chen, CEO of the global exchange Bitget, says investors are acting as though the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is already locked in. “CME FedWatch shows nearly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, which aligns with cooling inflation and weaker macro data. Remarkably, that probability was under 40% just a couple of weeks ago,” she noted.

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Chen highlighted a growing divergence in risk appetite. “The S&P 500 is up almost 17% this year and sits only 4% below its October high. Yet U.S. equity funds saw $3.5 billion in outflows last week, while global funds added $7.9 billion. Crypto, unfortunately, remains far weaker. A rate cut could help push BTC back toward $94,000–$96,000, while a cautious stance could send it into the $80K region again.”

Volatility Rises Ahead of a Central Bank–Heavy Week

Laser Digital reports that options markets are pricing in elevated volatility ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. The firm expects “choppy price action this week and next,” given a packed macro calendar that includes the Federal Reserve on December 10, the Bank of Japan on December 19, and two significant U.S. labor reports in between.

Markets are focused on the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the dot plot and any changes to the projected terminal rate, both of which could sway positioning into year-end.

Trading Activity Cools, but Event Risk Stays Elevated

Although crypto volatility has moderated from recent highs, traders continue to price in meaningful event-driven risk. Current levels place BTC volatility around 45-vol and ETH near 70-vol, with the December 11 event volatility marked at 56v for Bitcoin and 75v for Ethereum.

Laser Digital notes that spot-vol correlation remains negative—a trend that has persisted for months. With macro forces dominating and earlier catalysts fading, markets appear positioned for turbulence as central bank decisions take centre stage.

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Conclusion

The crypto market’s early-December rally has lost steam as macroeconomic pressures and shifting global rate expectations take center stage. While Bitcoin briefly approached the $94,000 level, fading catalysts, surging bond yields, and uncertainty ahead of key central bank decisions have weighed heavily on momentum. With volatility building and investor sentiment split between equities and digital assets, markets are bracing for a turbulent period driven by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and critical economic data releases. Until clarity emerges on policy direction, crypto prices are likely to remain choppy and highly sensitive to macro signals.