BITCOIN PRICE TESTS $68.4K WEEKLY SUPPORT AS ETF OUTFLOWS SURGE TO $2.8B
Bitcoin price prediction: Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $75,980 as U.S. markets opened on February 4, 2026, with downside risk increasingly centered on the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $68,400. The concern follows four consecutive bearish monthly closes, a rare stretch that has shifted market sentiment from dip-buying to defensive positioning.
Analysts Map Out Key Downside Levels
Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin highlighted $74,400—the so-called “April lows”—as the first near-term trigger. Below that, he pointed to $70,000, a zone sitting just above Bitcoin’s previous all-time high near $69,000.
Puckrin warned that a deeper sell-off could drag BTC into a broader capitulation range between $55,700 and $58,200, an area aligned with the average realized price and the 200-week moving average. According to him, a move into this band would likely mark a long-term cycle bottom rather than the start of a prolonged collapse.
Multiple Traders Flag the 200-Week EMA as a Magnet
Well-known trader Altcoin Sherpa echoed the same view, calling a test of the $68,000–$68,400 region “logical” under current market conditions. His analysis, shared on February 4, reinforces the idea that the 200-week EMA remains a natural draw during major corrections.
Meanwhile, analyst BitBull pointed to historical cycle behavior. He noted that when Bitcoin loses the 100-week EMA, price action has repeatedly revisited the 200-week EMA. Based on this pattern, he suggested $68,000 could become a strategic accumulation zone if reached and confirmed.
ETF Outflows Signal De-Risking, Not Full Capitulation
Institutional data suggests the pullback reflects risk reduction rather than a mass exit. Over the past two weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2.8 billion in net outflows, including $1.49 billion last week and $1.32 billion the week before.
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Despite the withdrawals, total ETF assets remain substantial at roughly $100.38 billion, down from over $125 billion in mid-January. This indicates institutions are trimming exposure but not abandoning Bitcoin altogether.
BTC Holds Mid-$70K Range as Traders Watch Deleveraging Risk
Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $74,600 but has so far held above the mid-$70,000 range. Derivatives traders closely watch this level, as a sustained breakdown could trigger forced deleveraging across leveraged positions.
Why the 200-Week EMA Matters to Institutions
For institutional desks, the 200-week moving average acts as a long-term regime indicator, compressing nearly four years of price action into a single weekly signal.
When markets begin pricing in a test of this level, trading behavior typically shifts from “buy the dip” to “sell the rally.” Large allocators often wait for either the following or
- a clear reclaim of the 100-week structure,
- a confirmed test and hold of the 200-week zone
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That confirmation is where systematic strategies, volatility sellers, and long-only funds tend to re-enter with size, rather than gradually building positions in uncertain mid-range conditions.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is entering a critical decision zone as price action compresses between the mid-$70K range and long-term structural support near $68,400. While ETF outflows totaling $2.8 billion suggest institutions are reducing short-term risk, the broader data points to de-risking rather than panic selling.
Historically, the 200-week EMA has acted as a powerful reset level during major corrections. If Bitcoin holds above current levels or prints a clean test-and-hold near $68K, long-term investors may view it as a high-confidence accumulation opportunity. However, failure to defend this zone could open the door to a deeper downside before a sustainable recovery begins.
For now, markets remain in wait-and-watch mode, with weekly closes around key moving averages likely to dictate Bitcoin’s next major trend.
