BITCOIN SEES 28,000 BTC SELL-OFF BY SHORT-TERM HOLDERS—A SIGN THE BOTTOM IS CLOSE?

U.S. stocks continue to soar, but some analysts are warning that the rally may be losing momentum—and Bitcoin could soon feel the effects.

Crypto trader DaanCrypto pointed out that much of the recent strength in equities is being driven by a flood of AI-related spending announcements, creating what he called a “massive cycle of future spending” that’s keeping tech valuations inflated. He believes a short-term market cooldown would be both “healthy and necessary” to restore balance before the next growth phase begins.

“It’s getting a bit crazy,” Daan remarked. “A company reports weak earnings, mentions AI, and the stock jumps right back up.”

According to him, a 10% correction in equities could help both traditional and crypto markets regain strength—setting the stage for a broader rebound once conditions stabilize.

Bitcoin Could Take the Lead in the Next Market Cycle

Even with traditional equities showing signs of exhaustion, DaanCrypto believes Bitcoin remains a key market leader—often moving ahead of broader financial trends. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to decline before traditional assets during market corrections and recover earlier when sentiment improves.

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Daan suggests that a short-term pullback could serve as a healthy reset, allowing markets to shed excess leverage and weak holders before the next major upswing. He adds that if the Federal Reserve moves toward quantitative easing (QE) in 2026, the additional liquidity could act as a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin’s next bull run, potentially reigniting momentum across the wider crypto market.

This positioning, he notes, puts Bitcoin in a unique spot to lead the next phase of recovery, just as it has in previous cycles.

On-Chain Data Reveals Pressure Among Short-Term Bitcoin Holders

On-chain analyst Darkfost reports that short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) are showing signs of stress, with many beginning to capitulate. According to CryptoQuant data, around 28,600 BTC were recently moved to exchanges at a loss, highlighting the pressure on traders who bought near recent highs.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders remains close to 1, suggesting that many are either selling at breakeven or taking small losses. Each time Bitcoin’s price edges toward its realized price near $112,500, profit-taking resumes, limiting upward momentum.

“Short-term holders are in doubt,” Darkfost noted, warning that further capitulation could occur before a true market bottom is established.

Market Outlook: Liquidity Still Holds the Key

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Both DaanCrypto and Raoul Pal agree that liquidity remains the most critical factor for Bitcoin’s next major move. Until global liquidity expands again—whether through interest rate cuts, fiscal spending, or renewed ETF inflows—Bitcoin’s price action may remain volatile and sentiment fragile.

However, Daan views any sharp correction as a buying opportunity, anticipating a strong recovery once broader market conditions improve.

“The longer markets keep going like this, the more unsustainable it becomes,” he said. “A reset would be healthy for the next macro phase.”