SILVER NEARS MAKE-OR-BREAK $115–$120 RANGE; CRYPTO’S ROLE UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT

Silver price surge and crypto market reaction: Silver’s vertical charge toward a record $119 an ounce has electrified trading desks—while simultaneously triggering bubble warnings from seasoned market veterans. The metal is up more than 60% in January alone and roughly 275% year-over-year, marking its most explosive monthly advance since the Hunt brothers’ failed attempt to corner the market in 1979.

Blow-Off Top—or “Gold on Steroids”?

Skeptics are growing louder. Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic says the rally has all the hallmarks of a speculative excess, warning silver is “almost guaranteed” to fall around 50% within a year. He describes the surge as driven by momentum chasing and meme-style trading rather than lasting fundamentals.

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Veteran chartist Peter Brandt highlights another red flag: nearly two years of global silver production—more than 1.5 billion ounces—has changed hands on exchanges, an intensity of turnover last seen at the 2011 market peak.

Still, not everyone is calling the top. Citigroup recently lifted its near-term price target to $150 an ounce, branding silver “gold squared” or “gold on steroids.” The bank argues that a potent mix of tight physical supply, speculative inflows, and thin liquidity could keep prices elevated—or push them even higher.

Adding fuel to the rally, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has recorded single-day trading volumes approaching $40 billion, nearly rivaling the SPDR S&P 500 ETF—an extraordinary signal of retail and macro-driven participation.

Structural Deficits Clash With Bubble Risks

Silver bulls insist this rally is fundamentally different from past manias. The market has now logged seven consecutive years of supply deficits, while industrial demand hit record levels in 2025.

Solar manufacturing is projected to consume 120–125 million ounces in 2026, with electric vehicles adding another 70–75 million ounces. China’s decision to reclassify silver as a strategic material—and tighten export licensing from January 1—has further constrained global supply.

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Yet caution remains. HSBC argues it is “unlikely that silver has become a new safe-haven asset,” noting that once prices began catching up with gold, momentum traders and retail investors rushed in. As Kolanovic points out, commodity bubbles eventually collide with physical reality: high prices dampen industrial demand, boost recycling, and encourage producers to hedge future supply.

Crypto Markets Watch for Familiar Signals

Silver’s parabolic move is unfolding as crypto assets continue to reflect global risk appetite. Bitcoin is trading near $88,235, with intraday moves between roughly $87,500 and $90,500 on about $32.8 billion in daily volume. Ethereum is hovering around $2,953, with approximately $23.4 billion in 24-hour turnover, while Solana trades near $192, up about 2.7% on the day with nearly $9.8 billion in volume.

For macro-focused crypto traders, silver’s behavior feels strikingly familiar: a scarce asset, real policy and supply risks, and a retail-driven rush into increasingly thin liquidity.

A Defining Moment for Silver—and Risk Assets

The key question now is whether silver’s “gold on steroids” phase ends in a classic blow-off top, echoing past speculative episodes—or whether sustained industrial demand and strategic stockpiling can support prices long enough to rewrite the script.

Either way, traders across commodities and crypto are watching closely.